By J. O. N. Perkins (auth.)
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15 * NOTE: negative figures indicate depreciation. *This figure is undefined, as for Canada by Year 5 this measure has no upward effect on real GDP. 1. stimulus (with money held constant), so that the dominant effect on the exchange rate was the weakening of the current account. For the US, in contrast to the other countries, the favourable effects on capital inflow resulting from upward pressure on interest rates resulting from either form of fiscal stimulus there would tend to be offset to a considerable extent by the tendency for interest rates in other countries to rise in sympathy.
2 In the same way, if some forms of tax cut reduce prices and others raise them, an appropriate shift between the two types of tax - reducing those taxes that tend to raise prices and increasing those taxes that tend to reduce prices - can presumably be used to exert downward pressure on prices without necessarily reducing tax revenue, and even to give a stimulus to real output at the same time. This carries the implication that such a shift in the relative importance of these two different types of tax (with total tax revenue being kept unchanged) may have two distinct upward effects on prices.
Table 3. 7 shows that the results of the OECD simulations imply that there may well be some (inverse) relationship between the ranking of the two fiscal forms of stimulus in terms of their effects on output per person employed ('productivity') on the one hand, and the extent to which they raise the price level (for a given real stimulus), on the other. For six of the countries (that is, excluding the US), it is income tax cuts that appear, on this evidence, to have the greater upward effect on productivity for a given stimulus to employment; for West Germany it is bond-financed income tax cuts, and for Japan, France, the UK, Italy and Canada a cut in income tax (with interest rates held constant) appears on these simulations to have the greater upward effect upon real GDP per person employed; and only for the US and Japan does a rise in government outlays (with interest rates fixed) have the greater upward effect on productivity per unit rise in real GNP /GDP.
A General Approach to Macroeconomic Policy by J. O. N. Perkins (auth.)