By Christopher M. Davidson
The Gulf monarchies (Saudi Arabia and its 5 smaller neighbours: the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain) have lengthy been ruled by means of hugely autocratic and doubtless anachronistic regimes. but regardless of bloody conflicts on their doorsteps, fast-growing populations, and strong modernising and globalising forces impacting on their principally conservative societies, they've got tested impressive resilience. Obituaries for those conventional monarchies have often been penned, yet even now those absolutist, virtually medieval, entities nonetheless seem to pose a similar conundrum as ahead of: within the wake of the 2011 Arab Spring and the autumn of incumbent presidents in Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya, the it appears steadfast Gulf monarchies have, before everything look, re-affirmed their prestige because the center East s purely actual bastions of balance. during this publication, even though, famous Gulf professional Christopher Davidson contends that the cave in of those kings, emirs, and sultans goes to occur, and used to be regularly going to. whereas the innovative hobbies in North Africa, Syria, and Yemen will undeniably function vital, if oblique, catalysts for the arriving upheaval, the various similar socio-economic pressures that have been increase within the Arab republics at the moment are additionally greatly found in the Gulf monarchies. it's now not a question of if but if the West s steadfast allies fall. it is a daring declare to make yet Davidson, who correctly forecast the industrial turmoil that troubled Dubai in 2009, has an enviable checklist in diagnosing social and political adjustments afoot within the quarter.
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Extra resources for After the Sheikhs: The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies
Their policy achievements. Finally, legislators suffer from limits on their time and energy, and these constraints vary with legislative context. Thus, they must decide how to allocate their time and effort, and devoting time and effort to one issue means paying opportunity costs, that is, delaying—and possibly ignoring—action on other issues (Hall and Deardorff 2006). 2. A model of obstruction. 2. In the first two steps, Pro decides whether to make a proposal (defined broadly; see below) and whether to make a “weak” or “strong” offer.
Attrition, however, can also imply political costs or benefits. As discussed in chapter 7, one of the reasons that Mike Mansfield resisted attrition as a strategy in the 1960s was that he felt press coverage of all-night filibusters harmed the public reputation of the Senate. At the same time, we observe a number of cases in which a majority brings up doomed legislation just to make it clear that they supported the bill. Third, reforming chamber rules can have profound political implications. On the one hand, while the general public typically is indifferent or opposed to filibustering, changing the rules in midgame can also offend citizens’ sense of fair play.
Legislators may be wrong about the determination level of their own team or the opposing team. They may also estimate the costs of filibustering incorrectly—it may be harder than it looks to wage a battle of attrition. This model does not incorporate this sort of uncertainty and updating, but, in practice, we observe shifting strategies during filibuster contests. For example, Pro may begin with a strong offer to test Con’s resolve and, having gained some information, bargain in earnest to negotiate a compromise.
After the Sheikhs: The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies by Christopher M. Davidson